Australia’s coronavirus death rate could proportionally be worse than China’s, expert warns

Australias coronavirus mortality rate could be higher than Chinas, a leading biosecurity expert has warned.University of NSW Professor Raina Macintyre warned the death rate could soar beyond the 3 to 4 per cent mortality rate the World Health Organisation and authorities in China have estimated, due to our ageing population.
She said urgent action was needed to protect older generations from the deadly disease.
“With an ageing population and a more severe illness in older people, Australia may see a proportionately greater morbidity and mortality impact than China,” she explained in the Sax Institute’s Public Health Research & Practice journal.
“We should persist with all feasible measures for as long as possible,” Prof Macintyre said.
“Travel bans and quarantine are proven interventions, and especially critical for infections with pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic transmission.”
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Australia’s three deaths to date have all been elderly people, aged 78, 82 and 95. The latter two were from the Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged care facility in Macquarie Park, where several residents were placed into isolation after a nurse who worked there contracted the virus.
Prof Macintyre warned that areas with a high density of people could be breeding grounds for the virus, adding that unnecessary large public events should be avoided.
“Sites where young people congregate such as schools, universities, sporting and entertainment venues would be sites of more intense transmission, and an outbreak in an aged care facility has already occurred in Australia.”
“The public health goal is to prevent the epidemic becoming sustained in Australia, or if that is not possible, to delay it and reduce the total number of cases using all available interventions,” she added.
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Prof Macintyre’s warning comes amid fears that the coronavirus is spreading through the country.
NSW authorities are now investigating a coronavirus cluster centred around Ryde Hospital, the Australian Defence Force and Dorothy Henderson Lodge. St Patrick’s Marist College and Willoughby Girls High School have been closed today as a precautionary measure.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian told the Nine Network today that the state government was trying to keep the public informed and up to date.
“All of us are feeling a bit uncertain and a bit worried about what’s going on … we are taking an overcautious approach, we want to make sure we don’t leave any stone unturned and public safety comes first,” the Liberal leader said. “It has been a tough couple of months for NSW but I’m confident that through the options we have before us that we will come out the other end.”
State Health Minister Brad Hazzard on Monday said rolling school closures was “likely to be the new norm”.
“If a child or a staff member or any other person within a school is found to have the COVID-19 virus, then effectively a breather will be taken and a day out will be the immediate requirement,” he told reporters.
NSW Treasury chief economist Stephen Walters has said while a state recession isn’t inevitable, there is a risk of two quarters of negative gross state product growth.
According to NSW Health, the health status of 618 people is still being assessed, but almost 8400 people have been tested and cleared of COVID-19.
The Qantas Group has announced further cuts to international passenger numbers, reducing capacity by almost a quarter for the next six months.
— with AAP