16/04/2023

Australia’s pandemic death toll has passed the 500 mark.

Updated
August 23, 2020 11:20:16
Australia’s pandemic death toll has passed the 500 mark with the announcement of 17 more deaths over the past 24 hours, all of them in Victoria.
The national total now stands and 502 with Victoria’s share at 415, having also crossed into new territory.
It was 28 days ago, on July 26, that we first experienced a day with a double-digit daily death count.
Since then, this tragic threshold has been exceeded 18 more times.
The worst day to date was August 17 when 25 fatalities were recorded.
Meanwhile, for the eighth day in a row, daily new cases have come in at less than 300. But today is the first day since Thursday that the number edged above 200.
Sunday’s total of 208 new cases was marginally up on Saturday’s tally of 182 new cases.
The data is among the charts below, which provide a guide to how Australia is faring in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
The latest update was at ___
Skip to a section:
(Tap/hover on any chart for more information.)
To date, Australia has recorded ___ confirmed casesof COVID-19, including __ deaths.
These figures are from a national dataset of every confirmed case since January 25, when the country’s first four cases were reported.
Compiled by ABC News, the dataset tracks cases as they are confirmed by state and federal health authorities. It is supplemented with additional reporting by ABC News and updated daily.
So far today, ___ new cases have been reported.
(Note that national daily and cumulative counts are likely to be lower earlier in the day, as some states/territories have not yet reported.)
__
In the chart below, ABC News has classified cases confirmed since June 1 by the likely or suspected source of infection. It is based on information released by state health authorities at the time cases are announced.
Of more than ___ infections confirmed in Australia since June 1, ___ have been in Victoria, compared with ___ in NSW.
Only ___ of cases in Victoria are returned travellers in hotel quarantine, compared to ___ in NSW.
A comparison of the daily rate of growth for Victoria’s two waves show that the effect of Julys lockdown has been nowhere near as dramatic as the first time around.
The chart below shows the daily percentage growth in cumulative cases for each wave. Cumulative cases have been reset to zero at June 1, the nominated “beginning” of Victoria’s second wave.
In March, when the majority of cases were being imported by returned travellers, the growth rate of new cases more than halved in the first two weeks following the lockdown.
This time, it has taken three weeks.
Part of the reason for this, according to experts, is that far more infections have been transmitted via unknown sources this time, making the spread of infection much harder to control.
As in the first wave of infections, clusters are now re-appearing in environments where there are concentrations of people, usually in confined settings.
This includes places such as nursing homes, hospitals, public housing residential towers, meatworks, pubs and restaurants.
The chart below shows all current clusters with, cumulatively, more than 10 cases. (Tap/hover over the bubbles for more detail.)
Case numbers and diagnosis rates are heavily influenced by the rate of testing.
A daily comparison of tests and new confirmed cases (using 7-day moving averages for both) suggests that in most states increased testing has not been matched by a rise in new cases.
Victoria is the exception.
Here, daily tests plunged from a peak of nearly 16,600 in mid-May to less than 7,000 in early June. Then, in mid-June, a surge in locally-acquired infections sparked a second testing blitz, concentrated in “hotspot” suburbs of Melbourne.
This pushed the average number of tests per day in Victoria past 27,000 in mid-July a national record for the highest number of tests in a day.
However, new cases per day climbed from four to about 200 over the same period, based on the 7-day moving average.
___ currently has the longest straight run without any new confirmed cases, tallying ___. This is a record for the ACT.
It is followed by ___ and ____.
Tasmania holds the national record, counting 65 days before July 20, when state health authorities confirmed an infection in a woman who had returned to Tasmania from Victoria.
In other jurisdictions, the longest period without any new confirmed cases is 61 days in the NT, 35 days in NSW, 34 days in SA, 27 days in Victoria, 15 days in Queensland and 12 days in WA.
Across the country, __ people or __ have recovered from the disease and ___ cases still current or “active”.
___
However, these figures are affected by anomalies with the NSW tally.
As of June 25, active case counts from NSW Health no longer include cases acquired overseas or cases where symptoms first appeared more than four weeks earlier regardless of whether or not the patient has been assessed as “recovered”.
This is out of step with other jurisdictions, where active case counts generally include all confirmed cases that are not recovered or deceased. (See notes at the end of this story for details.)
If NSW counted recoveries and current cases in line with other jurisdictions, its active case count would be around 550 cases higher.
The vast majority of people diagnosed with COVID-19 have not needed to be hospitalised.
The chart above shows the number of people in hospital in each state and territory. (Hospitalised figures excludes patients in ICU and ICU figures excludes ventilated patients.)
Of ___ current or “active” cases, only __ or __ are receiving hospital care.
This includes __ patients in ICU (or __ of current cases).
These hospitalisation figures are based on a snapshot of a point in time, rather than a cumulative count of patients hospitalised since the virus was first detected in Australia.
More data stories about coronavirus in Australia:
The chart below tracks the number of cases state health authorities add or subtract daily from each source of infection category, as well as the number of cases still under investigation.
It differs from the chart on Likely source of infection because it shows both new cases and older cases shifted between categories because contact tracing uncovered fresh information.
Overseas-acquired infections plummeted after Australia shut its borders and banned travel abroad in late March. In April and May, both overseas- and locally-acquired infections declined.
This changed in July as Victoria’s second wave of infections pushed locally-acquired infections to record-breaking highs.
Nationally, about 350 cases a day are traced to known local sources, based on the 7-day moving average, compared with less than 150 a day during the first peak.
A further 100 or more cases a day, on average, are determined to be “community transmission” (meaning cases where the source of infection cannot be identified), compared with less than 60 a day during the first peak.
Meanwhile, the backlog of cases under investigation soared to more than 3,500 by the end of July. At the height of the first peak, the backlog never exceeded 70 cases.
As a result of the second wave, locally-acquired cases now outnumber overseas-acquired cases, for the first time since the outbreak began.
Nationally, ___ of all confirmed cases have been spread locally, compared with ___ detected in returned travellers.
However, these percentages vary substantially between states and territories. In Victoria, for example, more than 80 per cent of confirmed cases have been locally acquired, compared with 14 per cent in WA.
Nationally, the source of infection remains unknown in ___ of confirmed cases, up from 5 per cent in late March.
Infections from unidentified sources now number __ nationally and account for ___ of all locally acquired cases.
On July 2, Victoria overtook NSW as the jurisdiction with the highest rate of community transmission, with authorities unable to identify the source of infection in nearly one in five confirmed cases, compared to one in eight in NSW.
Nationally, ___ people have died __. (In these figures, two Queensland residents who died in NSW are included in the NSW tally. These deaths are currently counted in both Queensland and NSW health authority totals.)
The death of a Victorian man in his 80s on June 24 broke a month-long pause in Australia’s coronavirus deaths. It was the longest period without a death since authorities confirmed the country’s first coronavirus death on March 1.
Nearly all of the deaths in Australia since May 23 have been in Victoria.
The death toll has climbed quickly during the second wave, most likely due to the rapid spread of the virus through Victoria’s aged care homes.
Australia counted 78 days from the first recorded fatality on March 1 to the nation’s 100th death, 75 days to the 200th, nine days to the 300th and just one week to the 400th death.
By far the largest number of fatalities have been among nursing home residents, who make up over half of Australia’s death toll.
Cruise ship passengers and crew account are a distant second.
Most deaths have been of people aged 80 or older, with men outnumbering women. (Tap/hover on a square for more details.)
But while older Australians are the most likely to die from coronavirus, younger Australians have also been hit hard.
People ___ have the most confirmed cases of any age group, followed by people in their 30s.
According to experts, this may be linked to lifestyle factors that mean young people are more likely to be socially active and to travel overseas.
Adjusting these numbers for the size of each age group (below) shows people __ have the highest rate of confirmed cases per 100,000.
This is most likely linked to the second wave of infections spreading through Victoria’s aged care homes.
They are followed by people __ and people __, and then those ___.
Until the second wave of infections in June, people in their 60s and 70s had the highest rate of confirmed diagnoses.
The chart below tracks the cumulative number of cases in each of the states and territories from the day it reached 10 cases.
It uses a log scale, which means each tick on the vertical axis is 10 times the value of the previous tick.
It shows ___ overtook NSW on July 10 as the jurisdiction with the most confirmed cases, and accounts for ___ of the total number of infections.
Victoria is followed by ___, then___.
NSW had held the top spot since March 3, when Australia’s total case count stood at just 41 and both the ACT and the NT were yet to record any diagnoses.
This chart shows the total number of confirmed cases adjusted for population size. (It does not use a log scale.)
It shows ___ also has the most confirmed cases per capita, with roughly five times the infections per capita of its closest rival NSW.
___ has the lowest infections per 100,000, followed by ___.
Data on the percentage of tests that come back positive for COVID-19 show __, then __ and ___, have the highest positive test rates.
___ and ___ have the lowest.
Again, this is influenced by testing rates, since the broader the testing regime, the lower the odds of finding positive cases.
Adjusting testing figures for population shows ___ now has the highest rate of testing.
It is now roughly ___ the rate in ___, which has the nation’s lowest rate of testing.
___ and ___ have the second- and third-highest rates of testing, respectively.
Another way of looking at rates of testing is to compare the number of residents to the number of tests, both as a share of the national total.
___ accounts for ___ of Australia’s population but___of samples tested in Australia, while __ accounts for ___ of the population but ___of tests.
By contrast, ___ makes up ___ of the population but only ___of tests.
Similarly, ___ accounts for just over ___ of Australia’s population, but only ___of tests.
Read more about coronavirus:
One way of measuring the spread of disease is by the daily percentage change in total confirmed cases.
This shows Australia’s growth rate during the first peak fell from nearly 25 per cent in mid-March to less than 1 per cent one month later, based on the 7-day moving average. The aim is to reach zero and stay there.
However, the growth rate has since risen, driven by the second wave of infections in Victoria.
Another way of tracking a disease’s growth rate is by how long it takes the number of confirmed cases to double also known as the “doubling time”.
This is easier to see when the number of confirmed cases is plotted on a log scale.
On the chart below, each tick on the vertical axis is 10 times the value of the previous tick.
Rather than exact dates, it tracks each country’s cumulative case count from the day that country reached 100 cases. This brings each country onto the same timeline.
The key element is the slope of the line. The steeper the line, the faster the growth rate. A horizontal or flat line means cases are no longer growing exponentially.
It shows most countries experienced exponential growth early on. Some countries, such as New Zealand, Taiwan, and China managed to “flatten” their curves and keep them flat.
Others, such as Australia and Japan, managed to bring their outbreaks under control for a period but have since seen a resurgence in infections.
Notes about this story

  • Data used in this story are provided by federal and state/territory governments, either from press conferences, official websites and reports, or press releases.
  • Federal and state/territory health authorities update their figures at different times of the day, so the numbers shown do not necessarily reflect the same point in time in each jurisdiction.
  • From March 27, federal government data come from a daily PDF emailed by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, titled “COVID-19 Update”. Prior to March 27, federal government data came from daily updates to the Department of Health website and a PDF “dashboard” also published by the Department of Health.
  • Cumulative vs new cases: From March 30, some states and territories began adjusting their case numbers as a result of false positive tests, double counting or historical cases. Often they do not advise when the errors occurred, so in most instances we revise the previous day’s new case count accordingly. For this reason, in some jurisdictions, new case counts may not match figures announced at the time and cumulative counts may not equal the sum of new cases.
  • Likely source of infection: In Victoria, “routine testing” excludes any testing of returned travellers in mandatory quarantine or in response to an outbreak, including testing of close contacts. As a result, ABC News has included these under Local – unknown. However, according to Victorian health authorities, these cases “are not classified as community transmission in the first instance”, as a thorough investigation is required before concluding that the source of transmission cannot be identified. This typically takes several days. Under investigation refers to cases that were received late in the day, so are yet to be classified.
  • Recoveries and current cases: Criteria for assessing whether a case is recovered or current/active differ by jurisdiction. Prior to June 12, Current cases = Total Confirmed minus Deaths minus Recovered, as reported by federal health authorities. From June 12, Current cases = Active cases as reported by state health authorities. Active case counts reported by NSW, Victoria and Qld do not equal Total Confirmed minus Deaths minus Recovered. As of June 25, the difference in NSW was more than 330 cases. In Qld and Victoria, the difference is less than 6 cases. NSW figures prior to April 21 were estimated by federal health authorities; from June 12 they exclude cases where recovery information was not available after six weeks; from June 25 they exclude cases acquired overseas and where symptoms developed more than four weeks earlier, regardless of recovery status. Both changes in methodology led to a steep drop in NSW’s current case count. Qld figures exclude cases where recovery information is pending. Victoria excludes cases with no LGA information.
  • Tests:NSW On May 26 NSW changed to reporting the number of tests, rather than people tested, bringing it into line with other jurisdictions. On July 1, ABC News adjusted NSW testing figures up to and including May 25 to also report the number of tests. As a result, data to May 26 is sourced from NSW COVID-19 tests data; from May 26 it is sourced from the Prime Minister and Cabinet’s daily COVID-19 update. VIC On May 27 Victoria received more than 20,000 delayed negative test results. On June 6, it removed a large number of duplicate negative results. There were no changes to the way it reports testing figures. ABC has adjusted the figures on both days to balance the anomaly. On August 2 and 3, Victoria did not report testing figures due to a “technical issue”. This led to a jump in figures on August 4, which ABC News has spread across the three dates. WA On June 16 and 17, WA did not update testing figures “due to technical issues”. This led to a jump in figures on June 18, which ABC News has distributed across the three dates. From June 27, WA no longer updates testing figures on weekends. QLD Queensland figures from May 22 to June 21, inclusive, have been adjusted to account for 38,500 delayed negative test results added in bulk on June 22. Specifically, ABC News has added 1,242 daily tests to each of the 31 days affected by the delay. TAS Tasmanian health authorities have not responded to questions about unusual testing figures for June 16, 17 and 18.
  • Deaths: Two Queensland residents who died in NSW are currently counted in both Queensland and NSW health authority totals. ABC News has only included them in the NSW tally. As of May 5, data on coronavirus-related deaths also rely on figured provided by Anglicare, the operators of the Newmarch House aged care facility in Sydney.
  • Source of infection: Between April 10 and 14, NSW moved a large number of cases between Source of infection categories, effectively reallocating 11 cases from Local – Unknown to Overseas. ABC News has adjusted the daily figures to reflect this.
  • Age and sex: Data are from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. It lags both federal and state/territory figures but is the most up-to-date source of age data at the national level. It is updated daily.
  • Cases and tests per 100,000: Population figures sourced from ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, Sept 2019
  • On June 20, this story changed from 5-day moving averages to 7-day moving averages, to account for weekday/weekend fluctuations in testing figures. The charts “Growth rate of Victoria’s first and second waves”, and “Daily change in total confirmed cases” use the geometric mean; all other averages use the arithmetic mean.
  • Dates refer to the date the case was reported by authorities, except in these instances:
    – The 5th, 6th and 7th confirmed cases in Victoria have been assigned to the date they were first cited in official press releases. These cases were first announced on March 1, as having recovered from the virus.
    – Dates for the 7th and 8th confirmed cases in Queensland (Diamond Princess cruise ship evacuees) are based on ABC News reports. The 9th confirmed Queensland case, another Diamond Princess evacuee, was first announced in a press release on March 3.

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Topics:infectious-diseases-other,
diseases-and-disorders,
respiratory-diseases,
disease-control,
medical-sciences,
government-and-politics,
diseases,
australia,
nt,
nsw,
act,
qld,
sa,
vic,
tas,
wa
First posted
March 17, 2020 05:49:54
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