The official word from Government Buildings is that thoughts about who will replace Phil Hogan at the European Commission are only at the embryonic stage.

The official word from Government Buildings is that thoughts about who will replace Phil Hogan at the European Commission are only at the embryonic stage. 
However, some close to the centre of this week’s events believe they are far more advanced than that. 
This view is based on two things. 
One is the fact that the Government must have known the pressure it applied would ultimately culminate in Phil Hogan’s departure from office. 
In that context it is inevitable that some senior figures were weighing up the next move. 
Couple this with the Cabinet’s backing of Phil Hogan for the World Trade Organisation top job earlier in the summer. 
At that point too it seems reasonable to assume that the outline of a replacement plan, should his bid prove successful, would have been sketched in at least some minds. 
The logic underpinning discussions at the time was that a major political figure such as the Tánaiste Leo Varadkar or Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney would have to put their names forward, if Ireland were to retain the Trade portfolio. 
The most sagacious of political observers were holding to this view last night. 
However, it’s a scenario that is laden with complications including an accompanying by-election which the Government could struggle to win. 
This reality surely boosts the chances of others such as European Parliament Vice-President Mairead McGuinness and former Tánaiste and serving MEP Frances Fitzgerald. 
The name of Enda Kenny was being floated in some quarters last night. 
The departure of either Simon Coveney or Leo Varadkar would also rob the Government of one of its anchoring forces. 
And it would mean that two new Ministers would have to be appointed to Cabinet next week with the new Agriculture Minister already set to be announced in the Dáil on Wednesday. 
That’s quite a degree of reshuffling in what still is a very new administration. 
Could that dent what some believe is a renewed sense of cohesion within Government in the aftermath of this bruising controversy?
Add to that the fact that Fianna Fáil, as the biggest party, may want to put its stamp on the next commissioner and other options come into the reckoning. 
They include, the widely respected David O’Sullivan the former EU ambassador to the US. 
It’s one more urgent decision that Government will have to make swiftly.