As the country grapples to suppress the second wave of Covid-19 infections the acting Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn warned has that trends in hospitalisations, admissions to Intensive Care, and Covid-19 related deaths tend to lag behind headline case n…

As the country grapples to suppress the second wave of Covid-19 infections the acting Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn warned has that trends in hospitalisations, admissions to Intensive Care, and Covid-19 related deaths tend to lag behind headline case numbers.
That means he said, we can expect to see more of each of them in the weeks ahead.
The National Public Health Emergency Team is seriously concerned about infection trends in some counties and how fast the situation has been changing. 
Dr Glynn detailed how one single case of infection that was traced, was eventually passed on to 56 other people through a series of direct and indirect social interactions involving households, extended families gathering, sporting activities and other social contacts. 
The message is that there is no such thing as safe when it come to this infection. No place and nobody can become complacent. 
There are particular concerns about four counties right now, Cork, Galway, Monaghan, and Roscommon where levels of confirmed Covid-19 infections have grown rapidly.
Cork for instance has had registered 66 cases of coronavirus per 100,000 of population over the past 14 days. That is actually below the national average which is 84 cases per 100,000.
Acting CMO, Dr Ronan Glynn
But what is alarming NPHET about Cork is not so much the actual number, but the pace at which it has been rising. It has been increasing for about three weeks and gone up by as much as 103% in the past seven days.
That is an enormous pace of increase. Add to that the news from Dr Glynn that 70 cases of the disease in Cork in recent weeks have been associated with pubs and restaurants. 
Then there is the fact that since Co Cork is such a big place, the relatively low countywide incidence of the disease disguises what is actually going on in the city and urban areas, where the growth in cases has been particularly striking.
The story in Galway is quite similar. A huge county where the spread of the disease in the city and larger towns is so much faster than in rural areas. Again the 14-day disease incidence total for Galway, at 62 cases, is below the national average.
However, just like Cork it has been growing for some weeks and has shot up by 94% in the past week alone. Here, the increase has been driven by significant clusters of Covid-19 associated with young people and house parties according to Dr Glynn.
County Monaghan on the border is particularly worrying. Especially after seeing the incidence rate other border areas shoot up.
For instance, the incidence rate in the Lifford-Stranorlar local electoral area of Donegal is the highest in the country with 336 cases per 100,000 people registered a week ago.
It emerged at the weekend too that the Dundalk-Carlingford local electoral area, which is also right on the border (with Northern Ireland), also has one of the highest 14-day incidence rates in the country with 180 cases per 100,000 people.
The latest figures provided by Dr Glynn show Co Monaghan is now up to 116 cases per 100,000 people.
What is most striking however, is that that number has increased by 108% in just seven days. If that trend is not reversed soon the county will be in trouble, with the prospect of new social and economic restrictions a real possibility.
County Roscommon was also highlighted as being a significant risk area. At first glance one might be tempted to ask, why? 
After all the 14-day incidence rate for Roscommon is bang in line with national average at 84 cases per 100,000 people. 
The real worry however, is the trend rather than the headline number. The incidence of the disease in this mainly rural county has actually increased by 123% over the past seven days alone.
It is another example of exponential growth in the spread of the virus unfolding before our eyes.
NPHET is watching very closely will have an obligation to take some action if it gets further out of control.