“Singapore lifted early and their cases rose quite steeply.”
Dr Joiner expects any “meaningful restrictions” will be lifted by September.
“The government is prepared to see unemployment go to 10 per cent or higher so I think they are assuming it will take longer to reopen. I think it’s going to be staged.”
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said the reopening of the economy should start from June.
“One plausible scenario is that the various restrictions begin to be progressively lessened by around the middle of the year and are mostly removed by late in the year perhaps with the exception of the restrictions on international travel.”
“We could expect the economy to begin its bounce-back in the September quarter and for that bounce-back to strengthen from there.”
ANZ chief economist David Plank was more bullish on the lifting of restrictions.
“Our forecasts are based on the bulk of them being lifted by the end of June, other than international travel, major sporting events and concerts, and we still expect some limits around bars and restaurants in terms of numbers,” he said.
On Wednesday Australian Rugby League Commissioner Wayne Pearce confirmed that NRL clubs would be able to resume training from May 4 with the competition planned to start by May 28.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Andrew Boak said one of the key concerns was that unlike the Northern Hemisphere winter was approaching and that could heighten the risk of more infections.
“With Australia entering its winter mid-year the revised guidance from the government is to prepare for containment measures extending for at least the next six months.”
Westpac’s Bill Evans said the RBA’s assumptions on the lifting of restrictions were broadly inline with his expectations around timing.
“The RBA’s scenario is broadly in line with the scenario on which we based our forecasts which we characterised as the restrictions being gradually eased through the September quarter with nearly all internal restrictions eased by years end although international restrictions were expected to remain well into 2021,” Mr Evans said.
Citi’s Josh Williamson said mid-May would likely be the start of some lifting in restrictions.
“We believe that the government will look to relax social distancing rules by mid-May, the four week period flagged by the Prime Minister last week.”
More Stories
“Nobody is the reason for my death. My family is having to bear a lot of expenses because of me. I am a burden to them, my education is a burden to them….” A day after she wrote this note, Aishwarya Reddy, a student at Lady Shri Ram College for Women in Delhi…
Tom Brady’s arrival had the Buccaneers dreaming of an NFC South title, but the Saints showed the QB and his team they’re a far from being a contender.
Barnaby Joyce claims he told Malcolm Turnbull ‘others’ were having affairs