11/02/2023

Feel-good stories have a shelf life. For some, the end includes triumph, an outcome befitting the against-all-odds mantra…

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press
Feel-good stories have a shelf life. For some, the end includes triumph, an outcome befitting the against-all-odds mantra. For others, the conclusion is more of a cold truth, a free-fall back toward reality after hovering, improbably, dimensions above it.
Right now, a mere one game into the 2020 NBA Finals, the Miami Heat’s Cinderella push appears fast-tracked for the less elegant wrap-up.
Goran Dragic’s injury is part of this seemingly abrupt end. He suffered a plantar tear in his left foot during the Los Angeles Lakers’ 116-98 victory over Miami on Monday night, leaving his status for the rest of the series in obvious doubt at best, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
Overcoming his absence, however long it lasts, feels like a non-starter. He was the Heat’s leading postseason scorer entering Monday’s loss, and they don’t have the secondary shot creation behind Jimmy Butler to guarantee offensive solvency without the 34-year-old point guard. 
Anchorage Man@SethPartnowDragic being out really lets a lot of the air out of the game and possibly series for me. Hard to see how Miami can consistently create offense starters vs starters without his ability to penetrate.
Miami’s half-court efficiency has cratered when Dragic sits, and that prognosis only gets worse if he cannot play at all. The most-used lineup without himButler, Bam Adebayo, Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinsonis a demonstrative negative, and no other five-man combination topped 50 playoff possessions minus Dragic prior to Monday night.
As deep as the Heat areand they’re duh-eephe has always represented their best crack at consistently hacking it against rival starting units. Going from him to Herro, a 20-year-old rookie, or Kendrick Nunn, another rookie, equates to a huge drop-off.
Phrased more bluntly: Miami is at risk of losing 20-plus points, four-plus assists and its second-best on-the-move finisher every game. Weathering that deficit, for any length of time, is an untenably gargantuan ask.
Bobby Marks@BobbyMarks42Joe Johnson suffered a torn plantar fascia in his foot during G2 of the 2013 first round vs. Chicago. Johnson would go on to receive an injection in his foot before each game. He would struggle shooting 25.6% from 3 and 41.7% from the field. 2/14 in a G7 loss.
“Be ready to go with or without Goran,” Butler said, per ESPN’s Malika Andrews. “… We are capable of it. We have to be capable of it.”
Even if the Heat’s depth beyond Dragic is enough to withstand such a massive blow, it might not matter.
Bam Adebayo left Game 1 and didn’t return with a left shoulder strain. X-rays were negative, and he plans to play in Friday’s Game 2, but the notion of a banged-up Adebayo is comparably devastating to Dragic’s (potentially) complete absence. He is critical to how they guard Anthony Davis and LeBron James, even if he’s not the primary defender on either.
And yet, herein lies the larger issue(s) for the Heat, bigger than Dragic’s possible (probable?) absence, bigger than how they fill his shoes, bigger than a potentially reduced version of Adebayo: The Lakers have LeBron. They have Davis. They’re better suited for this stage, for these stakesand always were.
This is not meant to be a denigrationor even a relitigationof all the Heat have done. They beat real teams to get here. The Milwaukee Bucks weren’t without Giannis Antetokounmpo for three-plus games of the second round. The Boston Celtics only inched closer to whole following the return of Gordon Hayward during the Eastern Conference Finals.
Bad luck plus a superior opponent equals not-so-great news for the Heat.Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press
Miami belongs here, in the championship round, with the chance to nab one of the most unexpected titles ever. Actually belonging in the winner’s circle is an entirely different matter. The Heat have made it this far for so many reasons, chief among them their obsessive intensity, focus and execution. But top-end talent can turn back underdogs, which, make no mistake, is what the Heat were even before now.
The Lakers have them in that top-end-talent department. Davis and LeBron are the two best players in this series, period. Butler might have nights during which he scoots past one of them, but he won’t do so in the aggregate.
Los Angeles’ stars proved as much in Game 1. Davis went on an offensive binge in the first quarter to help erase a 13-point deficit and finished the night with 34 points, nine rebounds and five assists on 11-of-21 shooting. LeBron cruised to 25 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists.
Davis is making shots from everywhere in the playoffs, including from distance, and he’s equally ubiquitous on defense. LeBron can forever nonchalant his way to triple-doubles and will absolutely, positively feast if the Heat are going to let Herro switch onto him. Even Adebayo looked a tad overmatched in space.
Rest assured, Miami can and will get more aggressive in how it covers both stars. Maybe Adebayo sees more time as the primary stopper on Davis. Maybe LeBron is trapped six ways until next Sunday. 
Mike Prada@MikePradaNBAI actually think there’s enough unsustainable/fixable stuff happening that could keep this a competitive series going forward … but that’s only if Miami’s banged-up guys are healthy.
To what end, though?
Slowing the human missiles that are Davis and LeBron puts additional onus on the supporting cast. The Lakers’ “others” are, by all appearances, up for it. They are a sore spot in every macro outlook and, frankly, just flat-out inferior to Miami’s non-stars on paper. But their results have long since lent themselves to the contrary.
Alex Caruso’s minutes aren’t a fluke. Danny Green is a seesaw, but he will have games, plural, in which he drains his threes (3-of-8 in Game 1) while, as ever, defending his butt off. Dwight Howard doesn’t need to score for his presence to be feltin a good way. Kyle Kuzma’s defensive effort allows head coach Frank Vogel to use him for 20-plus minutes even when his shots aren’t falling, and they have not been falling.
Rajon Rondo is, unequivocally, helping this team, even on nights when he’s 2-of-7 from the floor. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will have better games than his 3-of-10 footnote Monday night; his shooting has, by and large, been a revelation.
Sure, the Heat can look at plenty of controllable factors and envision a turnaround that makes this reaction to a 48-minute sample seem sillyeven sinister. They are third in free-throw-attempt rate for the postseason but attempted just 14 in Game 1. They will not often lose the three-point battle to L.A. by 12 points, with or without Dragic.
Overall, though, Game 1 doesn’t feel like a case of missed opportunity or a loss by misfortune. The Lakers had overturned the Heat’s early lead before Miami’s onslaught of bad luck hit. That hardship merely exacerbates what the Finals, what facing the Lakers, always stood to become, whether it takes five, six or seven games.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass.