The pressure to leave the EU has been building for some time, but mistakes by its defenders led to our departure

Who saw Brexit coming? When David Cameron and Nick Clegg formed a coalition government 10 years ago, the idea of leaving the EU seemed a fringe concern, advocated by no leading elected politician. Just six years later, 52 per cent of British voters chose to leave. 
Three people with a good claim to have predicted it first are Charles Grant, Denis MacShane and Patrick OFlynn. Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, wrote in March 2005 about what would happen if Britain voted No in the referendum Tony Blair had promised. 
The what? I can hear some people asking. Most people with better things to do with their time will have forgotten that one of several referendums Blair promised but didnt hold was one on the EU constitution, a treaty drawn up in 2004 to adapt EU rules to its expanded membership, and to consolidate all the EU treaties into a single document.
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The convention to draft the constitution, incidentally, was responsible for turning Gisela Stuart, the Labour MP for Birmingham Edgbaston, into a Eurosceptic. As a pro-EU Blairite loyalist, she was appointed by the prime minister as one of the UKs representatives. By the time the constitution was finished, she opposed it, and 12 years later she was the leading Labour voice in the Vote Leave campaign. 
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A message projected onto the White Cliffs of Dover
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Big Ben, shows the hands at eleven o’clock at night
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Nigel Farage speaks to pro-Brexit supporters
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Pro-Brexit demonstrators celebrate on Parliament Square
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The Union flag is taken down outside the European Parliament in Brussels
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Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
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A pro-Brexit supporter jumps on an EU flag in Parliament Square
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EU Council staff removed the Union Jack-British flag from the European Council in Brussels, Belgium
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A pro-Brexit supporter pours beer onto an EU flag
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Pedestrians pass in front of the Ministry of Defence Building on Whitehall, illuminated by red, white and blue lights in central London
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A Brexit supporter shouts during a rally in London
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Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
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Pro-EU campaigners take part in a ‘Missing EU Already’ rally outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
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A large pro-EU banner is projected onto Ramsgate cliff in Kent
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Pro-EU supporters light candles in Smith Square in Westminster
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A man waves Union flags from a small car as he drives past Brexit supporters gathering in Parliament Square
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The five-year old Elisa Saemann, left, and her seven-year old sister Katie hold a placard during a rally by anti-Brexit protesters outside the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh
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Pro Europe supporters gather on Brexit day near the British embassy in Berlin, Germany
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Anti-Brexit protester hugs a man while holding a placard
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A decorated, old fashioned fire pump in Parliament Square
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Pro Brexit Elvis impersonator performs at Parliament Square
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An anti-Brexiteers stands with his dog in Parliament Square
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Paddy from Bournemouth wears Union colours as he sits next to an EU flag decorated bag in Parliament Square
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A pro-EU activist plays a guitar decorated with the EU flag during a protest organised by civil rights group New Europeans outside Europe House, central London
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People celebrate Britain leaving the EU
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A Pro Brexit supporter has a Union Jack painted onto his face at Parliament Square
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Men hold placards celebrating Britain leaving the EU
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Pro Brexit supporters dance in the street draped with Union Jack flags at Parliament Square
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An anti-Brexit demonstrator spreads his wings during a gathering near Downing Street
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Pro EU supporters display a banner ‘ Here to Stay, Here to Fight, Migrants In, Tories Out’ from Westminster bridge
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Pro-Brexit supporters burn European Union flags at Parliament Square
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A man poses for a picture on Parliament Square in a ‘Brexit Day’ t-shirt
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People celebrate Britain leaving the EU
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A man wears a pro-Brexit t-shirt
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Anti-Brexit demonstrators visit Europe House to give flowers to the staff on Brexit day
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Pro Brexit supporter wears a novelty Union Jack top hat outside the Houses of Parliament
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Customers Scott Jones and Laura Jones at the Sawmill Bar in South Elmsall, Yorkshire, where a Brexit party is being held throughout the day
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A pro-Brexit demonstrator burns a European Union flag
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A Brexit supports holds a sign in Parliament Square
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A man carries an EU themed wreath
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Ann Widdecombe reacts with other members of the Brexit party as they leave en masse from the European Parliament
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Anti-Brexit demonstrators in Parliament Square
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Pro EU supporters let off flares from Westminster Bridge
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British MEPs Jonathan Bullock, holding the Union Jack flag and Jake Pugh leave the European Parliament, in Brussels on the Brexit day
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Newspapers and other souvenirs at a store, near Parliament Square
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Brexit supporters hold signs in Parliament Square
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Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square
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Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald with a Border Communities Against Brexit poster before its unveiling in Carrickcarnon on the Irish border
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National growers organisation British Apples & Pears has renamed a British apple to EOS, the Greek goddess of dawn, to commemorate Brexit day
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Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square
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Britain’s departure from the European Union was set in law on January 29, amid emotional scenes, as the bloc’s parliament voted to ratify the divorce papers. After half a century of membership and three years of tense withdrawal talks, the UK will leave the EU at midnight Brussels time (23.00 GMT) on January 31
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A man poses with paintings on Parliament Square
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People sporting Union Flags gather in Parliament Square
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A man walks with a St. George’s flag at Westminster bridge on Brexit day
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A British bulldog toy and other souvenirs at a souvenir store
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British pro-brexit Members of the European Parliament leave the EU Parliament for the last time
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Jonathan Bullock waves the Union Jack as he leaves the European Parliament
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A message projected onto the White Cliffs of Dover
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Big Ben, shows the hands at eleven o’clock at night
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Nigel Farage speaks to pro-Brexit supporters
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Pro-Brexit demonstrators celebrate on Parliament Square
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The Union flag is taken down outside the European Parliament in Brussels
7/66
Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
8/66
A pro-Brexit supporter jumps on an EU flag in Parliament Square
9/66
EU Council staff removed the Union Jack-British flag from the European Council in Brussels, Belgium
10/66
A pro-Brexit supporter pours beer onto an EU flag
11/66
Pedestrians pass in front of the Ministry of Defence Building on Whitehall, illuminated by red, white and blue lights in central London
12/66
A Brexit supporter shouts during a rally in London
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Pro-EU campaigners outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
14/66
Pro-EU campaigners take part in a ‘Missing EU Already’ rally outside the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh
15/66
A large pro-EU banner is projected onto Ramsgate cliff in Kent
16/66
Pro-EU supporters light candles in Smith Square in Westminster
17/66
A man waves Union flags from a small car as he drives past Brexit supporters gathering in Parliament Square
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The five-year old Elisa Saemann, left, and her seven-year old sister Katie hold a placard during a rally by anti-Brexit protesters outside the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh
19/66
Pro Europe supporters gather on Brexit day near the British embassy in Berlin, Germany
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Anti-Brexit protester hugs a man while holding a placard
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A decorated, old fashioned fire pump in Parliament Square
22/66
Pro Brexit Elvis impersonator performs at Parliament Square
23/66
An anti-Brexiteers stands with his dog in Parliament Square
24/66
Paddy from Bournemouth wears Union colours as he sits next to an EU flag decorated bag in Parliament Square
25/66
A pro-EU activist plays a guitar decorated with the EU flag during a protest organised by civil rights group New Europeans outside Europe House, central London
26/66
People celebrate Britain leaving the EU
27/66
A Pro Brexit supporter has a Union Jack painted onto his face at Parliament Square
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Men hold placards celebrating Britain leaving the EU
29/66
Pro Brexit supporters dance in the street draped with Union Jack flags at Parliament Square
30/66
An anti-Brexit demonstrator spreads his wings during a gathering near Downing Street
31/66
Pro EU supporters display a banner ‘ Here to Stay, Here to Fight, Migrants In, Tories Out’ from Westminster bridge
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Pro-Brexit supporters burn European Union flags at Parliament Square
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A man poses for a picture on Parliament Square in a ‘Brexit Day’ t-shirt
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People celebrate Britain leaving the EU
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A man wears a pro-Brexit t-shirt
37/66
Anti-Brexit demonstrators visit Europe House to give flowers to the staff on Brexit day
38/66
Pro Brexit supporter wears a novelty Union Jack top hat outside the Houses of Parliament
39/66
Customers Scott Jones and Laura Jones at the Sawmill Bar in South Elmsall, Yorkshire, where a Brexit party is being held throughout the day
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A pro-Brexit demonstrator burns a European Union flag
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A Brexit supports holds a sign in Parliament Square
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A man carries an EU themed wreath
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Ann Widdecombe reacts with other members of the Brexit party as they leave en masse from the European Parliament
50/66
Anti-Brexit demonstrators in Parliament Square
51/66
Pro EU supporters let off flares from Westminster Bridge
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British MEPs Jonathan Bullock, holding the Union Jack flag and Jake Pugh leave the European Parliament, in Brussels on the Brexit day
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Newspapers and other souvenirs at a store, near Parliament Square
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Brexit supporters hold signs in Parliament Square
55/66
Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square
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Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald with a Border Communities Against Brexit poster before its unveiling in Carrickcarnon on the Irish border
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National growers organisation British Apples & Pears has renamed a British apple to EOS, the Greek goddess of dawn, to commemorate Brexit day
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Pro-EU protesters hold placards in Parliament Square
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Britain’s departure from the European Union was set in law on January 29, amid emotional scenes, as the bloc’s parliament voted to ratify the divorce papers. After half a century of membership and three years of tense withdrawal talks, the UK will leave the EU at midnight Brussels time (23.00 GMT) on January 31
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A man poses with paintings on Parliament Square
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People sporting Union Flags gather in Parliament Square
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A man walks with a St. George’s flag at Westminster bridge on Brexit day
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A British bulldog toy and other souvenirs at a souvenir store
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British pro-brexit Members of the European Parliament leave the EU Parliament for the last time
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Jonathan Bullock waves the Union Jack as he leaves the European Parliament
Meanwhile, Blair surprised everyone by promising a referendum on the constitution before the UK ratified it. This was for the simple reason that he thought Michael Howard, the Tory leader, would gain votes in the 2005 election by advocating a referendum if Labour did not. 
That should have been a clue, because, as Denis MacShane points out, Blair understood that, whatever the question in a referendum about Europe, the answer was likely to be No. MacShane, who was Europe minister at the time, says most of the press, the Tory leadership and a block of Labour left-wingers like Jeremy Corbyn, as well as anti-EU veterans like Peter Shore, would have campaigned to defeat Blair.
But Blair was also canny enough to realise that other countries were going to hold referendums first, and that one of them, probably the Czech Republic, was likely to kill the constitution without Britain needing to do so. As it turned out, the constitution didnt even get that far. The voters in France rejected it, just after Blair was re-elected in May 2005, by 55 per cent. 
That seemed to be that, and the constitution was quickly forgotten. After a tactical interval, some of its provisions more majority voting and a new post of European Council president were revived in the Lisbon Treaty. Most countries tactfully decided against putting the treaty to referendums. That seemed a cynical, if effective, way of avoiding trouble, but in the British case, all it did was postpone the reckoning. 
Charles Grant was one of very few people who could see that clearly, if only because he thought through what would happen if Britain had held a referendum on the constitution and been the only country to reject it. He assumed that Labour would win the 2005 election, but if it then lost the referendum, the triumphant Eurosceptics would be demanding more. He went on: Having defeated the treaty, many of them would see renegotiation as the obvious next step. Their demands would be incompatible with EU membership, he wrote, and the public would, therefore, turn against the EU itself. Ten years later, it came to pass. 
The third person who saw it coming was Patrick OFlynn, a friend and rival of mine who was chief political commentator for the Daily Express. He remembers a conversation with Matthew Elliott, the boss of the TaxPayers Alliance, in 2008. The Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg had just called for an in-out referendum because they thought that was the only referendum question they could win. Matthew told me he thought a Leave campaign could win if the campaign was pitched correctly. That stuck with me. OFlynn proposed that the Express should launch a Better Off Out campaign. We launched in November 2010 and despite having had an instinct for the pent-up anti-EU feeling in the country, I was astonished by the volume of support it attracted from the off hundreds of thousands of people were signed up supporters within a few weeks. 
OFlynn went on to be a Ukip MEP, while Elliott worked with Dominic Cummings on the Vote Leave campaign. They turned out to be on the right side of history. But this was partly because of the mistakes made by others. 
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In my view, these mistakes do not include Camerons promise of a referendum. He, like Blair in 2004, was a prisoner of democratic forces beyond his control. He had to make that promise or his Eurosceptic flank would have been shredded by Ukip, and he would have handed the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. 
I think the most overlooked mistake was made by Angela Merkel and the other EU leaders when they refused to offer any meaningful compromise in Camerons renegotiation of the terms of UK membership. Their insouciance was directly responsible for the worst setback in the EUs 63-year history losing one of its richest and most populous members. 
Yet in all the sentimental farewells from our European partners, and all the pious predictions that we will be back, there seems to be no acknowledgement whatever that it takes two sides to break up. Unlike Grant, MacShane and OFlynn, I cannot pretend to foresee the future, but I do wonder if the EU will come to regret its part in its own diminution.